As the world begins to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, concerns arise that we might be heading into another era of stagflation, as global economic growth still looks to be frail, and commodity prices begin an inauspicious climb. Should we be worried? I think it’s too soon to be all anxious about such prospects, but it’s good that people are thinking about it. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
After the recent oil price slump of 2014, crude oil prices have made a gradual climb back up, but have not yet reached the peaks prior to that slump. And while there was a major drop following the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, prices have recently recovered, and a commodity boom is now on the horizon. But how will oil prices fare in the years ahead, as consumer demand for decarbonisation accelerates? It appears to be that that dreaded “peak oil” scenario is likely going to happen soon, or at least within my own lifetime. That secular shift in energy patterns will lead to significant changes in the global economy, as well as geopolitics. That will also mean that the spoils could well go to countries with the foresight to capitalise on this once-in-a-lifetime shift, like the way China has ramped up its capacity for manufacturing solar panels. Other countries would be wise to follow suit.