- As the world begins to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, concerns arise that we might be heading into another era of stagflation, as global economic growth still looks to be frail, and commodity prices begin an inauspicious climb. Should we be worried? I think it’s too soon to be all anxious about such prospects, but it’s good that people are thinking about it. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
- After the recent oil price slump of 2014, crude oil prices have made a gradual climb back up, but have not yet reached the peaks prior to that slump. And while there was a major drop following the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, prices have recently recovered, and a commodity boom is now on the horizon. But how will oil prices fare in the years ahead, as consumer demand for decarbonisation accelerates? It appears to be that that dreaded “peak oil” scenario is likely going to happen soon, or at least within my own lifetime. That secular shift in energy patterns will lead to significant changes in the global economy, as well as geopolitics. That will also mean that the spoils could well go to countries with the foresight to capitalise on this once-in-a-lifetime shift, like the way China has ramped up its capacity for manufacturing solar panels. Other countries would be wise to follow suit.
- This might be controversial to say in certain circles, but after 50 years of the New Economic Policy, and the “emergency” measures of forcing the reallocation of corporate equity to the hands of the “Bumiputera”, it is clear that we need a different way forward. And yet we are recently told that Bumiputera institutions should only sell to (rich) Bumiputera buyers. Why persist with the type of policies that have been proven to have failed in the past, and reward those who are already wealthy, as opposed to helping those who truly need help? And why now, when the new government of the day is insisting that we are all one “Keluarga Malaysia”?
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #8
- Who knew one could make quite a bit of money selling milk from home? As Farm Fresh prepares for its upcoming IPO, it is good to see businesses that are still anchored on the idea that business can actually help people to improve their lives. There has been a lot of skepticism, of late, in the enthusiasm of capitalism to embrace a more stakeholder-oriented stance, but I suppose it all depends on your intention: to truly embrace togetherness and shared prosperity, or to merely employ such rhetoric to mask baser motives of greed and exploitation.
- It is a common cycle throughout the history of innovation and technological growth: a new technology platform arrives on the scene – it could be petroleum as a source of energy, or electricity as a means to power machinery, or the Internet as a means of sharing information – and those most well-placed to gain from the rapid advancement and growing profitability of such technologies begin to gain outsize advantage and eventual domination: the Rockefeller oil trust, General Electric, or Google and Facebook. Eventually, burgeoning profitability and market share leads to outsize influence and power, and dominant players find themselves increasingly tempted to wield monopolistic power in their favour. And then, the backlash begins. In recent days, a whistle-blower has made her voice heard, and there is growing consensus that dominant tech giants like Facebook and Google will need to be reined in. Competition eventually becomes normalised, until the next cresting of a new technology…
- I believe that when historians look back at the politics of the late 2010s, there will be a huge collective sigh of relief that while Trump was certainly an influential and talented demagogue, his own incompetence and lack of discipline made sure that the damage he could actually inflict on America and the world was relatively limited. Could a more capable wannabe-tyrant have done differently? In my mind, highly likely. We are not yet at the endgame of the current epoch of this collective and corrective backlash against the excesses of capitalism and inequality: for that, we need a 21st century FDR to emerge, so that the inchoate demands for better justice and fairness can cohere into a set of much-needed policy reforms that will shape the world anew.
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #7
- There has been a lot of discussion about broadening the tax base in Malaysia, especially since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax, which was eventually abolished by the Pakatan Harapan government. In an age when income inequality is foremost on the minds of policymakers and commentators, it is interesting to see the Malaysian Socialist Party (“PSM”) and the Democratic Action Party (“DAP”) at loggerheads over the idea of a Capital Gains Tax. My take is that policy choices in Malaysia would become much, much clearer on that day when we finally introduce clear rules around transparency of political financing. Then we will see, who exactly is fighting for the people, vs. those who merely talk a good game.
- Being married to Kat Rahmat inevitably means that there will be a lot of conversations around the meaning of Life and Death. In particular, the two of us often have conversations around the fear – nay, terror – of impending death, and how we engage in various convolutions and distractions, to take our eye off the stark reality of permanent departure from this world. This piece is consoling: that even physicists, who we would imagine to be the most rational of the best of us, cannot escape postulations that help us to find peace with the idea of our eventual expiration.
- The Great Resignation is real, and it is coming. As many workers have spent months away from the office, they have had time to evaluate their lives and careers, and many have begun to explore different options for how to live their post-pandemic lives. This article reminds us that it is okay for people to leave, and it is equally as important to pay attention on those who choose to stay. As for me, I look back at my career over the past decade and realise that even though I have technically moved jobs 5 times since 2010, those job moves have actually involved me shuttling back-and-forth between just Pemandu and Ekuinas. I would like to think it is a good sign that I have been able to return back to old stomping grounds, not just once but twice. Loyalty and trust can be hard to build, but they are very powerful currencies in our journey through life.
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #6
- This is a good read in The Economist by Noam Chomsky, a long-time critic of American imperialism, reminding us that every nation ends up with some warped idea of its own benevolence, especially when that country bestrides the world in economic and military power. For a relatively small nation like Malaysia, the lack of ability to project imperial power means that we are removed from such temptations. And yet, even within our own borders, we often act in ways that belie our insistence on a benign and harmonious “Keluarga Malaysia”. Forced labour, killings in police custody, rounding-ups of “illegal” workers and many other instances in Malaysian history seem to suggest that if ever we were offered power at the imperial scale, we would likely also fail to wield such power with wisdom and restraint.
- Jeff Bezos, through his private investment vehicle Bezos Expeditions, has made his maiden investment in an Indonesian e-commerce startup, raising the stakes for Southeast Asia as a frontline in the global competition for tech investments. As it is, most foreign investors would flock to Indonesia – for its sheer size within the larger Southeast Asian region – or to Singapore, for its more mature markets and investor-friendliness. In the meantime, Malaysia is adamant in its insistence on ethnic navel-gazing, pleased at being able to play an outdated game of racial one-upmanship. I suppose we deserve to be where we are, if we continue to insist on keeping our heads firmly stuck in the sands of irrelevance.
- In the meantime, PM Ismail Sabri is asking us to “forget our differences”, in the spirit of “Keluarga Malaysia”. It will be interesting to see if this call – noble and much-needed as it is – will be translated into tangible policy changes. Having seen the twists and turns of Malaysian politics over the past few decades, I will not be holding my breath.
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #5
- The Government is tabling a bill to raise Malaysia’s statutory debt ceiling from 60% to 65%, in order to fund stimulus measures to help Malaysians get through the pandemic. I think this is timely, and much needed. What is not clear, however, is whether this is a temporary or permanent raising of the debt ceiling (the title of the Bill suggests that this is temporary, but this is not made fully clear), and whether there is a clear plan for Malaysia to bring its debt levels back down to below 60% once the pandemic is truly over. We must not allow emergency measures to become a slippery slope that drives our nation’s finances into further indebtedness, especially after all the losses that we are incurring over the 1MDB looting.
- While the debate in Malaysia’s parliament over raising the debt limit looks to be perfunctory, the United States seems to be spiraling into yet another bout of partisan bickering over its own debt ceiling. Madness? Yes. But this is the blowback that the US political class has purchased for itself when it walked blindly into the morass of the War on Terror, and the disastrous consummation of its flirtation with nativist no-nothingism with the Tea Party that had eventually led to Trump’s presidency. There is always a price to pay when you play with extremism in the pursuit of narrow parochial interests.
- Here’s an interesting and totally expected thing that usually happens when you conflate a succession race with a plan to recover from a pandemic: the politics will almost always get in the way. What is Singapore thinking? Like mentioned in the article, this is not something that would have happened during Lee Kwan Yew’s time. Another chink in the armour, then, for the PAP government under Lee Hsien Loong?
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #4
- Turkey threatens to buy new missile system from Russia: is this the beginning of the end for Turkey’s membership of NATO? And will this lead to even sharper realignment of global geopolitics?
- The third MRT line’s alignment has been finalised and awaiting approval. I hope we do get this 3rd line done: Kuala Lumpur needs to step back from the brink of urban car congestion, and embrace more active modes of mobility. The alternative is unsustainable.
- Like many of my generation, I have pegged a lot of my self-esteem and self-worth to my work. This is a good reminder that there is so much more to living than just what I do for a living.
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #3
- Biden is setting a new goal for global vaccine equity: 70% of the world to be vaccinated by next year… which is already a stated goal by the W.H.O. “The U.S. wants to be engaged,” French virologist Dr. Marie-Paule Kieny said in response to this development, “but they still don’t know exactly how to engage with the new world that has developed while they were away.” Isolationism is not just a plaything for Trumpian political appeal: it has a real cost, on real human lives.
- The “bloated” size of the Malaysian civil service has been a favourite topic amongst opposition politicians of the past several decades, so this take on the size of the civil service is a pleasant surprise. Granted, the PSM would certainly have a bias for stronger public services. But at a time when much attention is being devoted to the Government’s operational expenses – and the heavy cost of civil servants’ emoluments – it would be interesting if a more nuanced position can be staked out on this long-running debate.
- Another taper tantrum ahead? At least it is good to know that the recovery seems to be progressing in earnest. But with concerns over Evergrande and the punishments being meted against Chinese businesses, a tapering could lead to oversized shocks for developing economies.
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #2
- Another anti-Trump politician is self-purging himself from the Republican Party, asking himself, ““You could fight your butt off and win this thing, but are you really going to be happy?” I wonder if a similar trend might soon take place in Umno. The Bossku phenomenon suggests that Umno is at a crossroads: will the party turn back towards the middle ground, and reclaim the popular vote that it has progressively lost since 2008? Or will Umno stay in its current hard-right corner, justifying corruption and grand larceny in the name of Malay supremacy?
- The fact that an 84-year old Ku Li is still a “player” in Umno – the party of Tunku and Tun Razak and Tun Dr. Ismail – shows the depths of the party’s current lack of leadership talent.
- China trolls its Pacific neighbours, even as the US tightens its focus on Asia with its recent Aukus deal.
Three Things I am Thinking about Today #1
- Keep all your rough drafts and notes. You never know if you make it big some day, just like Van Gogh.
- Even with better medical care, the death toll from Covid-19 is now officially worse than the 1918 Spanish flu, thanks to all those anti-vaxxers who “want to do their own research.”
- With China cracking down on businesses, is a “bamboo curtain” about to fall, and would Southeast Asian nations like Malaysia be forced to choose?
300 Words About Learning to Let Go
It doesn’t appear much on the front pages of Sinar Harian or Utusan Malaysia, but I cannot stop thinking about the recent announcement of the AUKUS alliance, which certainly helped to advance America’s intentions to escalate its stance against China, but has also brought the relationship between the USA and France to a level of tension that has not been seen since the late 18th century.
What was particularly interesting to me is the venom with which France has responded to the recent developments. French diplomats called it “a stab in the back.” “You can’t understand the depth of our anger and sense of having been disrespected.” These words from the French ambassador to Australia were very telling.
Just like Brexit, I believe that the fury of the French reaction can only be truly understood when seen in the long arc of imperial history.
The French, under Napoleon, were on the brink of European – and by extension, given the colonial drive of the 1800s, one could even say World – domination, until Waterloo. French history, since then, has been one long slide downwards, culminating in the submission to Germany in World War II, the humiliation of Dien Bien Phu, and the loss of Algeria.
Like Britain, France has struggled to adapt to the realities of postwar Europe, and the primacy of America. How will France move forward from here? If Britain’s example is anything to go by, there will be further flailings of existential angst to come.
Will France go as far as switching its allegiance away from its Atlantic allies, and cozy up to Russia and China? At the moment, this seems rather unlikely, but stranger – and more suicidal – things have happened when nations cannot let go of a glorious but all-too-distant past.