We should not be surprised when autocrats abuse their powers to pursue their own personal agenda, even if it includes the illegal surveillance of an ex-wife. Looks like the backlash against Big Tech is gaining even further momentum now.
The rise of petroleum in our energy mix has led to more than a century of geopolitics being driven by the politics of the Middle East. Now that we are confronting a future where renewable energy technology will become an increasingly significant part of the future of global energy, the security of supply of battery manufacturing – amongst many other potential flashpoints – will begin to feature prominently in the evolution of global politics. Will US-China trade tensions escalate into a Cold War-style balkanization of global supply chains? Will countries like Korea and Japan (and of course, China) be tempted toward military escalation in order to guarantee the uninterrupted supply of raw materials? For mineral-rich, small countries like Malaysia, how do we navigate this new, more treacherous future?
As the world begins to emerge from the Covid-19 pandemic, concerns arise that we might be heading into another era of stagflation, as global economic growth still looks to be frail, and commodity prices begin an inauspicious climb. Should we be worried? I think it’s too soon to be all anxious about such prospects, but it’s good that people are thinking about it. To be forewarned is to be forearmed.
After the recent oil price slump of 2014, crude oil prices have made a gradual climb back up, but have not yet reached the peaks prior to that slump. And while there was a major drop following the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus, prices have recently recovered, and a commodity boom is now on the horizon. But how will oil prices fare in the years ahead, as consumer demand for decarbonisation accelerates? It appears to be that that dreaded “peak oil” scenario is likely going to happen soon, or at least within my own lifetime. That secular shift in energy patterns will lead to significant changes in the global economy, as well as geopolitics. That will also mean that the spoils could well go to countries with the foresight to capitalise on this once-in-a-lifetime shift, like the way China has ramped up its capacity for manufacturing solar panels. Other countries would be wise to follow suit.
Who knew one could make quite a bit of money selling milk from home? As Farm Fresh prepares for its upcoming IPO, it is good to see businesses that are still anchored on the idea that business can actually help people to improve their lives. There has been a lot of skepticism, of late, in the enthusiasm of capitalism to embrace a more stakeholder-oriented stance, but I suppose it all depends on your intention: to truly embrace togetherness and shared prosperity, or to merely employ such rhetoric to mask baser motives of greed and exploitation.
It is a common cycle throughout the history of innovation and technological growth: a new technology platform arrives on the scene – it could be petroleum as a source of energy, or electricity as a means to power machinery, or the Internet as a means of sharing information – and those most well-placed to gain from the rapid advancement and growing profitability of such technologies begin to gain outsize advantage and eventual domination: the Rockefeller oil trust, General Electric, or Google and Facebook. Eventually, burgeoning profitability and market share leads to outsize influence and power, and dominant players find themselves increasingly tempted to wield monopolistic power in their favour. And then, the backlash begins. In recent days, a whistle-blower has made her voice heard, and there is growing consensus that dominant tech giants like Facebook and Google will need to be reined in. Competition eventually becomes normalised, until the next cresting of a new technology…
I believe that when historians look back at the politics of the late 2010s, there will be a huge collective sigh of relief that while Trump was certainly an influential and talented demagogue, his own incompetence and lack of discipline made sure that the damage he could actually inflict on America and the world was relatively limited. Could a more capable wannabe-tyrant have done differently? In my mind, highly likely. We are not yet at the endgame of the current epoch of this collective and corrective backlash against the excesses of capitalism and inequality: for that, we need a 21st century FDR to emerge, so that the inchoate demands for better justice and fairness can cohere into a set of much-needed policy reforms that will shape the world anew.
There has been a lot of discussion about broadening the tax base in Malaysia, especially since the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax, which was eventually abolished by the Pakatan Harapan government. In an age when income inequality is foremost on the minds of policymakers and commentators, it is interesting to see the Malaysian Socialist Party (“PSM”) and the Democratic Action Party (“DAP”) at loggerheads over the idea of a Capital Gains Tax. My take is that policy choices in Malaysia would become much, much clearer on that day when we finally introduce clear rules around transparency of political financing. Then we will see, who exactly is fighting for the people, vs. those who merely talk a good game.
Being married to Kat Rahmat inevitably means that there will be a lot of conversations around the meaning of Life and Death. In particular, the two of us often have conversations around the fear – nay, terror – of impending death, and how we engage in various convolutions and distractions, to take our eye off the stark reality of permanent departure from this world. This piece is consoling: that even physicists, who we would imagine to be the most rational of the best of us, cannot escape postulations that help us to find peace with the idea of our eventual expiration.
The Great Resignation is real, and it is coming. As many workers have spent months away from the office, they have had time to evaluate their lives and careers, and many have begun to explore different options for how to live their post-pandemic lives. This article reminds us that it is okay for people to leave, and it is equally as important to pay attention on those who choose to stay. As for me, I look back at my career over the past decade and realise that even though I have technically moved jobs 5 times since 2010, those job moves have actually involved me shuttling back-and-forth between just Pemandu and Ekuinas. I would like to think it is a good sign that I have been able to return back to old stomping grounds, not just once but twice. Loyalty and trust can be hard to build, but they are very powerful currencies in our journey through life.
This is a good read in The Economist by Noam Chomsky, a long-time critic of American imperialism, reminding us that every nation ends up with some warped idea of its own benevolence, especially when that country bestrides the world in economic and military power. For a relatively small nation like Malaysia, the lack of ability to project imperial power means that we are removed from such temptations. And yet, even within our own borders, we often act in ways that belie our insistence on a benign and harmonious “Keluarga Malaysia”. Forced labour, killings in police custody, rounding-ups of “illegal” workers and many other instances in Malaysian history seem to suggest that if ever we were offered power at the imperial scale, we would likely also fail to wield such power with wisdom and restraint.
Jeff Bezos, through his private investment vehicle Bezos Expeditions, has made his maiden investment in an Indonesian e-commerce startup, raising the stakes for Southeast Asia as a frontline in the global competition for tech investments. As it is, most foreign investors would flock to Indonesia – for its sheer size within the larger Southeast Asian region – or to Singapore, for its more mature markets and investor-friendliness. In the meantime, Malaysia is adamant in its insistence on ethnic navel-gazing, pleased at being able to play an outdated game of racial one-upmanship. I suppose we deserve to be where we are, if we continue to insist on keeping our heads firmly stuck in the sands of irrelevance.
In the meantime, PM Ismail Sabri is asking us to “forget our differences”, in the spirit of “Keluarga Malaysia”. It will be interesting to see if this call – noble and much-needed as it is – will be translated into tangible policy changes. Having seen the twists and turns of Malaysian politics over the past few decades, I will not be holding my breath.
